Credit Ratings’ Consoling Convergence Conniptions
In a mixed ratings gaze, index provider JP Morgan acknowledged emerging-developed market convergence “halt” with corporate and sovereign downgrades again topping upgrades last year, but doubted that heavy weight counties would soon lose their investment-grade position as the average in the main local and external benchmarks. One-quarter of global ratings are now BBB, and developed world upgrades in 2014 were quadruple downgrades while the respective developing economy numbers were 15 and 40 and negative outlooks are twice positive ones. Mexico, Peru, Latvia and Lithuania were among the winners as the EMEA region was most demoted including Ukraine, Ghana and Serbia while Latin America marks fell in Argentina, Venezuela and Costa Rica, and Asia’s only victim was Mongolia. Brazil, South Africa and Turkey are likely to retain prime status in the near-term, but Russia is a “migration risk” as S&P already placed it on negative credit watch implying 50 percent odds of a cut in the next quarter. Commodity exporters and speculative frontier country issuers may also be re-evaluated including Barbados, El Salvador, Nigeria and Zambia, while upgrade candidates are just a handful and not unanimous among the three agency giants. In the Eurozone France has a negative outlook and Italy could go to BBB, but few 2015 actions are expected despite the return of regional stress associated with the Greek elections and its Troika program exit. In the corporate realm the upgrade/downgrade ratio was 0.6 with Asia and the Middle East-Africa outperforming Eastern Europe and Latin America with an average of 50 reductions in each area. Companies from Colombia, the Philippines and Vietnam went in the other direction, and South Africa had almost 10 downgrades with electricity provider Eskom teetering on junk status despite state budget injections. The high-yield segment has been hit harder including Chinese property and metals, Brazilian infrastructure and Russian consumer goods. In Latin America quasi-sovereign oil and gas names will probably be rerated, along with banks heavily exposed to the industry.
According to the analysis the EMBIG diversified with its one-fifth frontier component could be first to dip below investment grade with ten countries currently on negative outlook/review by Moody’s and S&P. Lebanon is on the list with its 150 percent of GDP debt burden and annual 30 percent public financing needs due to rise with internal and external political instability. Lower energy prices may help selected importers in jeopardy but have triggered broad re-assessment of Gulf credits after regaining their footing after the Arab Spring and Dubai restructuring. Saudi Arabia has an estimated $750 billion in foreign assets but will run a 2015 fiscal deficit and plans to issue domestic debt to bridge it. Dubai World has postponed upcoming maturities with another proposed bank and bondholder deal after the original backstop was extended by Abu Dhabi at peak world oil values. Bahrain which was the worst MSCI equity market in 2014 with a 35 percent loss could see its fortunes diverge further with allies’ diminished support supplementing sectarian splits.
