The Populist Crusade’s Multilateral Mutation
Populism as an anti-establishment and xenophobic political philosophy reflecting economic backlash against globalization, technological change and income inequality is part of the historical cycle in both the developing and industrial world, and modern financial markets as instantaneous transmission mechanisms magnify strains. In the Americas and Europe, with the US, Brexit, Central Europe and Brazil-Mexico examples, the phenomenon is best known but no region has been spared and the playbook applies in democracies as well as in authoritarian regimes. It has succeeded in bringing in new parties and leaders on the national level and upsetting existing trade, monetary, development and diplomatic arrangement internationally, but election campaign platforms are typically abstract and sentiment based. Translating aspirations into durable policy shifts, with tangible benefits for disgruntled lower and middle class voters, has proven elusive. In recognition of difficulties producing definitive changes aligned with promises and rhetoric, populist movements and representatives are now “globalizing” to share experiences and forge alliances. Real breakthroughs handling automation and artificial intelligence with employment and privacy implications, and trying to moderate growing cross-border and in-country wealth gaps, can best be assured through joint efforts to forge the future landscape, even if international cooperation and formal treaties are discarded as last century establishment remnants.
Revamping the free trade model to add skills and retraining provisions, services along with goods coverage, and currency considerations is an evolving consensus, even if the US prefers to resort to bilateral pacts and tariff threats. Africa in contrast has tabled a continental formula encompassing these features. The world and Washington in their own interests seek to reduce dollar reliance as the main reserve unit, and individual central bank diversification and IMF special drawing right creation have been the traditional paths with limited progress. On development, infrastructure building is viewed in both Western and Asian practice as a paramount driver for increasing per-capita income across working classes, and recent institutions on the scene like the AIIB acknowledge the need to partner on large projects and avoid heavy debt. In economic diplomacy, the G-20 summit legacy from the past decade is badly in need of updating or replacement to a more inclusive setting to address the disconnect populists easily grasp.
On migration, Eastern Europe opted out of the EU resettlement plan, as Hungary also joined the US in rejecting the UN’s voluntary Global Compact for Refugees, which for the first time outlines a 21st century approach to frequent permanent large-scale dislocations. It is not legally binding but an expression of common political will to determine processing, protection and integration norms including on labor access and job creation. Citing fiscal costs that have spurred taxpayer discontent amid cultural tensions, the agreement calls for a move away from chronically inadequate government and international organization aid to private funding and investment for business, infrastructure and social purposes. Populist revolt hastened the long overdue shift and fresh alternatives will be a collective success as modernized multilateralism even as country-first slogans are routinely deployed.
