Myanmar’s Cresting Condemnation Count
While the tiny Myanmar Stock Exchange formally reopened to foreign investors as a new companies law went into effect several months ago, they continue to keep their distance amid slowing growth and currency depreciation, and potential removal of European Union garment export duty free entry over the Rohingya refugee crisis. Government leader Aung San Suu Kyi refused to accept APEC summit criticism over expulsion and human rights violations against the Rakhine state Muslim minority, as Bangladesh tried to start a repatriation program for a few thousand of the 750,000 there with no volunteers. She replaced economic officials but refused to acknowledge a “gathering storm” described in a World Bank December report of policy lapses and delays reflected in sliding tourism and foreign direct investment, as the country ranks in the bottom twenty of its “Doing Business” publication. The International Monetary Fund’s latest Article IV visit piled on with a call for a “second reform wave” to achieve frontier market status, as it cited fiscal risks from large recently-agreed China-funded infrastructure projects and hesitant state-run banking system restructuring.
The World Bank predicts gross domestic product growth will slow half a point to 6.2% in the 2018-19 fiscal year ending in March. Industrial sector decline was tracked in purchasing manager index readings below 50 the last quarter, with business sentiment faltering according to a separate survey. The mid- year pace of approved manufacturing foreign direct investment was half the previous $1.5 billion pace, and services output fell slightly with tourism reputation fallout over the Rohingya issue. Arrivals are up less than 1% compared with 7% in 2017, with double-digit drops from Europe and North America. The government removed Asian neighbor visa requirements in a bid to bridge the gap but their spending and stays continue to lag wealthier country visitors. Garment exports are a “bright spot,” accounting for 3% of GDP and almost 750,000 mostly women-held jobs, but EU and US preferences are under review for possible trade sanctions resumption. Agriculture as the main employer is flat following flood-related crop damage and Indian import curbs, and private consumption will “moderate” with rising food and fuel price and currency depreciation-driven inflation, expected to reach 9%. Officials poured money into energy and transport projects in an attempt to stoke demand, also hiking the budget deficit to 4% of output.
The trade deficit was a 5-year low of $300 million in the second quarter, with formal jade exports to China doubling despite an international campaign to boycott so-called “genocide gems” controlled by the military. Reduced capital goods imports should shrink last year’s 2.5% of GDP current account gap, and FDI flows have traditionally offset it but were only $1.7 billion from April-September versus $4 billion the preceding period. Oil and gas exploration and production remains shunned pending law and tax changes, and companies from Singapore, China and Thailand are in sequence the leading sources. They represent 70% of the total, with “limited diversification” through other regions, and China’s 15% slice is likely to increase with the bilateral Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative, the Bank report comments.
Kyat depreciation against the dollar roughly mirrors regional trends, with an August spike when the central bank removed a daily fluctuation band and the rate settling around 1550 since October. Thin formal foreign exchange trading may exacerbate volatility, and officials recently authorized dollar swaps to aid liquidity. The swings have little influence on Chinese border trade denominated in renimbi, and competitive export gains are elusive since imported input costs rise. The central bank continued interventions at $15 million from April-September, as first quarter credit growth was barely in double digits after the previous 25% clip with tighter bank regulation demanded by international donors. Two-thirds of loans go to trade, construction, services and agriculture customers, with a “large state enterprise bias.” Profitability as measured by return on assets is in steady decline as interest rate controls remain in place. The lack of market determination applies also to Treasury bill and bond issuance to finance the deficit, where auction participation is “below potential.” The first credit bureau for banks and non-bank lenders to better pool information and manage risk is under formation and may improve small business access, but medium-term progress depends as much on image and portfolio rehabilitation as an urgent broader leadership signal , the review claims.
