African Private Equity’s Tricky Confidence
Deloitte and the East and Southern Africa Private Equity Associations released their annual survey of industry economic and asset class attitudes from 75 respondents highlighting “adaptability and agility” despite deal and growth difficulties. In the latter sub-region manufacturing is increasingly popular next to energy and real estate and although 60% believe South Africa’s economy is in bad shape 80% plan greater allocation. The East’s 6% growth leads the continent and is “coming of age” despite controversial presidential elections in Kenya and Rwanda and stricter regulation in Tanzania. New fundraising is up as first stage PE vehicles reach maturity and local pension funds subscribe, but at steeper entry multiples with rising transaction competition. Small business is a current focus, especially in agriculture and financial and retail services, and renewable energy is a major technology play. Of the limited partners asked 15% expect exits in the coming year, whereas none were contemplated in 2016. Sub-Sahara Africa GDP expansion is forecast at 2.5% in 2018, with “muted” commodity price advance. The East has experienced prolonged drought, and Ethiopia is now the largest economy and growth champion, with 10% jumps the past decade from domestic demand and infrastructure as it slowly opens to foreign investment. South Africa has been in recession amid sovereign ratings downgrades close to junk, and Mozambique will join Botswana and Malawi in 5% growth despite its external debt travails. In the West Nigeria has stabilized with wider foreign exchange availability and Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Ghana should see 7% range output upticks over the medium term. PE activity will climb in all three areas the next twelve months, but most in the West with Nigeria’s predicted turnaround, according to the research. Existing funds should be fully deployed in 2-4 years, and among countries Ghana, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Cote d’Ivoire have emerged as preferred destinations.
By sector the consumer is the top priority, especially in food, healthcare and pharmaceuticals. Small and midsize and mature companies are equal emphasis, and typical fund size runs from $50-$200 million-plus, while deals are around $20 million. General partners differ by geography, with governments and development banks dominating the South and West and endowments-pensions the East. Europe is the main external source, followed by South Africa and the US. Debt finance is due to rise alongside equity, and the main exit paths are strategic and secondary market investor sales. The return time horizon extends beyond five years, and backers tilt toward mid-size Pan-African strategies. Corporate governance and transparency are the chief domestic issue challenges, with owner-manager distinction an important underappreciated concept. Internationally, Brexit’s impact on bilateral trade and signaled US protectionism are high on the list. The Trump administration’s initial budget blueprint recommended big African aid cuts, and AGOA’s duty-free preference extension is under review for several signatories, while the older GSP poor-country program may not be renewed. The new heads of development agencies AID and OPIC expressed commitments to economic growth and venture capital fund support, and the State Department held a summit with dozens of foreign ministers, but a bungled counterterror operation in Niger has overwhelmed the joint agenda with possible future supplementary private capital dimensions yet to offer confidence.