Intelligence Networks’ Gauzy Future Gaze
The National Intelligence Council issued its latest global trends medium and long-range scenarios prepared every presidential term, and described a “paradox of progress” based on thousands of interviews in dozens of countries where power shifts create new international stress. It posits that “promise or peril” may result from the information and connectivity revolution, as recent experience has slashed poverty but also spawned the global financial crisis and populist politics. In the next five years world GDP growth will slow as American post-Cold War dominance fades with the associated rule-based international order, which is regularly subject to challenge by state and non-state actors, with an “emboldened China and Russia. ” Decades of trade and technology integration has hurt Western middle classes and drained budgets with the highest immigration flows in seventy years. A “dreary” near-term future is likely but will be colored by alternative organizational paths into “islands, orbits or communities” depending on the degree of cross-border cooperation on economic stability as well as transnational issues like climate change. Overarching themes through 2035 include population aging in the industrial world, identity-based governance threatening liberalism and tolerance, cyber and robotic systems altering conflict, and common environment and health challenges. Unconventional energy sources and biopharmaceutical products have become readily available and affordable but lack shared regulatory standards requiring a combination of technical expertise and multi-stakeholder diplomacy, the report argues. Pollution and water quality rank as developing country priorities alongside economic growth and natural disaster and emigration costs are rising with continued deterioration. ICT evolution has yielded a fragmented marketplace of contradictory news realities which frustrate consensus and also invite authoritarian attempts to shape messages. Commercial interdependence has historically been a check on war but both major and middle powers also seek to reduce vulnerabilities to potential sanctions and terror attacks. Europe faces additional shocks with undercapitalized banks and EU separatist movements like Brexit, and the US has low public trust in leaders and institutions.
Central and South America has endemic economic mismanagement and corruption, and gangs and organized crime have filled the breach. China lags on state enterprise reform and the working age cohort is shrinking rapidly, while Russia has been unsuccessful in diversifying from oil, and male life expectancy is the shortest in the G-8. In East Asia, North Korean provocation will continue with missiles able to reach across the region, and MENA governments still inhibit markets, employment and human capital, according to the analysis. In Sub-Sahara Africa breakneck urbanization overwhelms infrastructure and it will experience chronic water shortages destroying agriculture and fostering violence. India will be the growth champion but its development track remains hobbled by poor education, health and sanitation and rivalry with next-door Pakistan. In the coming decade, countries under the “island” scenario will prevail only by redressing income inequality with better job training and lifetime learning. In “orbit” adversaries can selectively work toward joint conflict resolution and public good objectives, while with “communities” governments will join with business and civil society on “soft power” transnational policy and technology partnerships. They could promote underlying state “resilience” in financial and safety networks as an ultimate paradox in ceding official control, the study suggests.
