Financial Sector Assessments’ Disputed Formula
The IMF and World Bank prior to the annual meetings offered a third review of the 15-year old joint financial sector assessment program which noted strengthening since it was incorporated into Article IV surveillance in 2010 but also wide scope for improvement in gauging cross-border and bank-nonbank risks. Since the 2008 crisis three areas have been highlighted: overall vulnerability, stability policy and prudential supervision in practice and safety nets through the prism of balance sheet stress testing and international codes observance. A formal screening framework was introduced and 90 percent of country participants were satisfied with general coverage. Contingency scenarios always apply to banking but have expanded to insurance and solvency, liquidity and contagion are measured. Techniques were refined in a staff manual but underlying data are not always available or reliable for full exercises, especially outside the 30 designated “systemic” members, the Fund reports. Important operational and fraud threats are not considered and outward channels are rarely addressed alongside foreign credit and capital inflows. Targeted macro-prudential controls are new tools and are harder to benchmark than the traditional BIS banking, IOSCO securities and IAIS insurance principles. The Financial Stability Board enshrined by the G-20 in the wake of the crash has launched its own voluntary testing aimed at sixty countries, which tends to overlap and “fatigue” local counterparts. As an alternative under the FSAP process they can choose individual stability and development modules in view of priorities and mutual resource constraints. A Bank-Fund Liaison Committee of senior executives coordinates the content and effort including complementary technical assistance. One-third of recommendations are completely followed and 90 percent are published, with emerging and low-income economies often demurring. A rough regression indicates findings can affect markets especially bank valuations, but diminishing downloads over time suggest brief “shelf life.” They are mainly bilateral but regional reviews were conducted for the EU, Central and West Africa CFA Franc zones, and the East Caribbean Currency Union. The recent annual average output has been 15 FSAPs, with the individual cost at $1 million. For the most advanced global centers expenses are double, while they are half for non-systemic developing nations. This fiscal year work was presented for Kazakhstan, Jamaica, Lebanon and the East African Community, but poor economies typically lack current and integrated analysis and troubleshooting, and occasional technical missions cannot substitute the Fund laments. Along with adding more flexibility to the core product cost limits and sharing could free resources from the major country undertakings for potential redeployment, it proposes.
Separately the Asia Bond Market Initiative likewise marking 15 years outlined its latest quarter progress and statistics until end-June. Local currency instruments outstanding were up slightly to $8 trillion, with $5 trillion from China as Vietnam grew the fastest. The ten markets’ size is 60 percent of GDP, and the government-corporate split is 60-40. Maturities have concentrated at the 1-3 year shorter end as thus far solid foreign holdings may soon transform with liquidity change, according to the Asian Development Bank.
