China’s Africa Drift Drudgery
Amid the hype over Africa’s commodity and debt entanglement with China expressed in a number of best-selling books and animating fresh Western trade and diplomatic pushes as with the US AGOA program, a Brookings Institute study describes continuing “policy inertia” with minor economic and strategic stakes and bureaucratic clashes. It notes that commerce and investment are only 5 percent of the global total and that the region is low on the foreign affairs agenda. Beijing’s relevant ministries are at odds over aid and business interests, particularly when private firm actions and contracts are in question. Officials do not conduct systematic political risk assessment to guide engagement, and they no longer need to block Taiwan recognition since Chad, Niger and Malawi switched sides. As the biggest bilateral partner imports and exports are $200 billion annually with a $30 billion mainly oil-based deficit, as outward direct investment of around $5 billion may be understated given the use of offshore conduits in Hong Kong and the Caribbean. Security is often an issue with attacks on executives and workers that drives military and police assistance. Ideology is also a factor insofar as the Chinese model eschewing democratic capitalism is embraced by the Sub-Sahara, even in authoritarian regimes like Sudan and Zimbabwe. However for international relations the continent is “peripheral” despite nods to developing world solidarity, although the opposite holds true for Ghana, the DRC and other recipients of billions in loans from the China Development Bank equivalent to big chunks of GDP. Field and headquarters personnel at the Foreign Affairs, Commerce and Finance Ministries vie for decision-making control, and aid projects can enlist specialist health and other expertise. Export-Import Bank funding is agreed jointly between the management and these bodies, and umbrella facilities are often used to catalyze greater state-run company involvement. The review comments that senior-level politburo scrutiny is rare and that provincial governments are joining the central one in promotion efforts. Independent entrepreneurs are outside these categories and may have the worst labor and environmental track records as they focus solely on profit.
They tend to ignore the Millennium Development Goals which approach the 2015 deadline with many already met or on track although Africa is lagging, according to a World Bank update. Extreme poverty defined as daily income under $1.25 has been halved to 20 percent and primary school completion is at 90 percent despite literacy and numeracy doubts. Gender enrollment is almost equal and child mortality has halved the past two decades. Water access has improved but rural sanitation remains poor with 2.5 billion people without a toilet. Among diseases HIV-AIDS has been reversed but malaria and tuberculosis are stubborn. Official development assistance at just 0.3 percent versus the O.7 percent of GDP goal and continues to decline in real terms, but debt relief to 35 poor economies has cut the Sub-Saharan debt service-export ratio to under 5 percent overcoming previous stasis.
