Bangladesh’s Pesky Post-Independence Shackles
Bangladeshi shares were alone in MSCI frontier Asia losses through February, as both major political parties united in condoning massive protests shutting Dhaka and other cities against the “lenient” life sentence for an Islamic leader convicted of crimes during the independence war with Pakistan four decades ago. Participants have demanded the death penalty and advocate curbs on the biggest fundamentalist grouping which is an ally of the opposition BNP. The confrontation came after intense negative international publicity over garment factory fires with substandard working conditions, and a year into an IMF arrangement which was recently modified after missed targets. In the last fiscal period economic growth was 6.5 percent on 7.5 percent inflation, as the budget gap was 4 percent of GDP. On the external front, gross reserves reached $12.5 billion but the non-concessional borrowing cap was breached with new energy and infrastructure debt with the currency “broadly stable” against the dollar, according to the Fund’s recent snapshot. Electricity and fertilizer subsidies are due for removal and medium-term tax revenue is seen at 12.5 percent of GDP after VAT law passage. State-owned firms will be audited, and the government will distinguish between its ownership and oversight functions for commercial banks as stock market exposure is limited to one-quarter of regulatory capital. Electronic trading was introduced for Treasury bonds and Sukuk rules will be modernized. New loan classification and provisioning guidelines went into effect, and with recent cases of fraud and misconduct the central bank assumed power to remove chief executives. After taking a Russian commercial credit for nuclear power development, sovereign bond issuance may soon follow, with an official committee charged with analyzing and verifying debt sustainability.
Sri Lanka already embarked on that path to great success and its rating was just affirmed after demurring on another IMF program. GDP growth for 2013 is set again at 6 percent as inflation remains in single digits. The central bank has reversed course and loosened slightly but heavy T-bill placement will be needed once more to cover the persistent budget hole, with the foreign ownership ceiling at 12.5 percent. Currency depreciation should help exports but the current account deficit will be around 4 percent of output. Banks may tap the international bond markets in the near future, and FDI should exceed 2012’s $1 billion as agricultural drought ends and tourism training efforts are realized. However the Rajapaska administration goes before the UN Human Rights Council in March for its treatment of rebel Tamils during the civil war amid allegations of fresh harsh behavior toward the courts as a chief justice ruling against the family was summarily dismissed. Lawyers protested the move and the political opposition condemned “violations” of the constitution and rule of law. Colombo is to host the Commonwealth summit in the coming months where freedom in the Anglophone world is celebrated with often muffled cheers.
