Latin America/Caribbean

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Venezuela’s Refugee Wave Window (Financial Times)

2018 May 24 by

Emerging market fund managers still investing in Venezuela are no longer just focused on debt restructuring scenarios heading into May elections in the wake of self-inflicted economic collapse, as over 1 million migrants and refugees have already fled to neighboring countries to roil their financial markets with prospects of millions more to come, according to a study by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. Over 500,000 Venezuelans are in Colombia in advance of the presidential race there, 250,000 each are in Ecuador and Panama, and 150,000 in both Chile and Peru, and 50,000 in Brazil. Latin American stock markets outperformed rival regions on the MSCI index through the first quarter, but the influx’s humanitarian and fiscal costs have yet to fully register.

The UN refugee agency officially declared a crisis and called on regional governments and international development lenders to exercise individual protection and share the funding load. The Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank are gearing up for infrastructure and social support, but established  public-private sector arrangements like the cross-border Latin America Integrated Market (MILA) stock exchange between Colombia, Chile and Peru could also create specific capital market instruments to foster refugee employment and business creation upon arrival.

Colombia has an estimated 50,000 Venezuelans daily pouring into border towns like Cucuta to meet daily food and health needs or to stay indefinitely. In addition, it has an unresolved legacy of internal displacement as the peace accord negotiated by outgoing President Santos with the guerilla FARC goes into effect, under the general principle of exchanging army demobilization for peaceful civilian return with promised job training. However the fiscal rule in place limits the deficit to 3% of GDP this year, and the front-runner in the end-May presidential contest, Ivan Duque from ex-President Uribe’s party. has signaled a harsher stance toward former rebels. The current account gap is at the same level placing pressure on the sovereign rating, despite higher foreign direct investment in the oil industry. Growth and inflation are in the 3% range, as central bank easing is set to continue. A second round runoff is predicted with more centrist opponents who have tried to co-opt Duque’s business-friendly platform, and forced migration will be likely sidetracked as a priority during the leadership transition as headline movements demand action.

Chile is host also to Haitians who fled the poorest nation in the hemisphere after the 2010 earthquake and subsequent hurricanes, and moved further south after deportation efforts in Brazil in particular. It has traditionally attracted seasonal low-wage workers from neighboring countries, but a permanent presence has posed cultural and labor market challenges. President Pinera, in his second term, promises to revamp the economic model in a free-market and socially-responsible balance, in part to salvage his popularity which previously suffered under an image of wealthy elitism. Refugees outside Santiago seek employment in the copper mines with keen competition and few protections, and like the middle-class students protesting under the previous administration seek wider university access for advanced education and skills. With 3.5% predicted GDP growth and negligible inflation, the solid investment-grade credit rating is intact, but Chile will be a test case for a future “melting pot” demographic and productivity engine.

Peru was the Andean stock market champion with a 10% first quarter gain as President Kucyzynski, implicated in the continent-wide Odebrecht scandal, resigned and was replaced by a technocrat successor and cabinet. Amid the political jockeying before his departure, plans to deepen MILA exchange ties, originally described to MSCI when it threatened frontier index demotion, were shelved and asset managers expect new President Vizcarra and his team to restore momentum. Ecuador takes in the Pact’s largest Venezuelan group after Colombia, and intends to reenter the MSCI frontier gauge and consider new local and global financing sources as President Moreno breaks with his socialist predecessor on fiscal discipline and investor compatibility. He plans to again tap global bond markets and renegotiate Chinese debt terms, and may even consider an IMF program to smooth fundamental and structural shifts including on refugee absorption.

As the international aid and diplomatic communities mobilize to address the systemic Venezuelan exodus, financial markets looking for fresh impetus could act with the same urgency to adapt solutions. On the MILA, listed companies could readily issue securities aimed at local and overseas buyers to expand refugee-related capital, hiring and supplier relationships benefiting host economies. Unlike governments and development lenders, this platform could  generate longer-term commercial flows so far absent in the” burden-sharing” mix, and offer a more optimistic prosperity prescription to shape the regional debate

Latin America’s Perverse Political Parade

2018 April 28 by

Latin America topped Q1 main stock market results with Peru and Brazil roughly tied with 10% gains, as the President finally bowed to congressional will and public anger at his consulting for disgraced construction firm Odebrecht and resigned, with the moderate vice president assuming the term’s remainder. The move ended months of political standoff and maneuvering and the departure may not protect PPK from judicial prosecution as he must stay in the country for now. Elsewhere Central America kicked off the election season with an unexpected cliffhanger in Costa Rica between the “two Alvarados,” one from the ruling party and the other an evangelist entertainer. The former won the second round with a minority in parliament which will continue to frustrate long-promised fiscal reforms to pare the 60% of GDP public debt. Government salaries take half of revenue, and popular opinion has turned against democracy with only 60% backing on the heels of scandals such as around questionable Chinese cement imports. El Salvador also had legislative and municipal polls in March with an almost 60% abstention rate, with the opposition Arena alliance ahead of the FMLN in power, which suffered its worst defeat since inception. The outgoing mayor of the capital Bukele was not on the ballot, but is tipped as the frontrunner in next year’s presidential run. The incumbent Sanchez Ceren has disappeared from view on rumored illness as GDP growth slugs along at 2% amid increased murder and poverty levels. In Cuba non-democratic next generation transition is also underway as Raul Castro hands over the nominal mantle to Vice President Diaz-Canel in his late 50s, who is a career Communist functionary with unknown economic policies. US tourism is down under stricter Trump administration travel curbs, with less than 5 million visitors in 2017. Havana in turn has cracked down on private sector business, which accounted for over half a million jobs by last count, but coders have found a place with European outsourcing, according to reports.

Mexico was flat for the period amid continued bickering over NAFTA 2.0, with about one-third of the 30 chapters completed and negotiations overshadowed by Washington’s steel and aluminum tariff decision hitting Canada. The latest rounds have been stuck over hot button national content, dispute resolution and expiration clauses with the US Trade Representative pushing for “creative solutions.” Inflation has eased to 5.5% with an eventual 3% target, as new central bank chief Diaz de Leon is on shock watch and prepared to raise the benchmark rate and peso intervention ahead of July’s presidential contest. Although retail sales are weak, manufacturing has been healthy with the PMI at 55 and real wages are up. Leftist-populist candidate AMLO is ahead at this stage with a 40% voter preference as backlash against the main parties’ corruption and security failures. He has downplayed past radical approaches to wealth redistribution and drug cartel relations, and repositioned as a competent economic manager who would scrap the proposed $15 billion Mexico City airport upgrade as wasteful. Conservative PAN standard bearer Anaya had been in second position with charisma and age drawing young and independent support, but now faces allegations of suspect real estate deals. The stock market itself has come under insider trading doubts as the regulator examines patterns in financial group listings, but punishment is rare as impunity likewise lingers in that culture.

Latin America’s Ineluctable Election Elevation

2018 March 22 by

Financial markets in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico strained to continue early year positive direction, with looming presidential election cycles overwhelming business and economic ones themselves presenting a mixed picture. Argentina’s contest is not until next year, but another term favorite President Macri has run into trouble with his “gradualist” adjustment program initially cheered and now displaying lackluster growth, inflation and FDI results. Labor unions long associated with the Peronist political opposition have gone into the streets to press for annual wage gains above the 15% target, after the price gauge was up 25% last year. The union federation head has been accused of embezzlement, but orchestrated a truckers strike also designed to challenge proposed labor reforms. The central bank’s anti-inflation credibility in turn was eroded after a surprise unexplained interest rate cut which may have been designed to curb peso appreciation with strong foreign portfolio inflows. The government issued $10 billion in external debt through February, and provinces and corporations joined the bandwagon. The carry trade case is still compelling on double-digit yields but the one-way bet will be muted with a volatility dose that the monetary authority could intend. The strategy could be compromised by chronic direct investment weakness, at 1.5% of GDP half the regional average, in the capital account. The infusion is also needed to cover the higher current account deficit as drought ravages agricultural exports, and consumers embark on an import spending binge with restrictions lifted from the Kirchner era. Industrial production was flat in December as a recent construction boom could be over, and the 2017 growth tally will not reach the 3% threshold for bonds’ warrant premium. Investors can point to fiscal deficit progress with subsidy rollback, but balance will remain elusive pending implementation of structural tax and pension changes. The President and his team propose more action in a second term, but social transfer cuts were a wedge issue in the parliamentary polls several months ago, and rival party chamber control supported by opinion surveys against future reductions will be difficult to overcome.

Brazil enthusiasm picked up on a court ruling that former President Lula, the front runner with a commanding lead over right winger Bolsonaro, was ineligible to run with his criminal bribery conviction, but left after he appealed the decision. The pension overhaul narrative was dented too as the Temer Administration, seeking supermajority congressional passage of a constitutional amendment, abandoned the effort in the face of its 5% popular approval. Ratings agencies downgraded to “BB” in response, as the embedded cost of mid-50s early retirement is predicted to swell government debt to 75% of GDP by end-decade. S&P also cited unmet “fragilities” in the federal fiscal framework, including previous state and local authority rescues since they cannot place debt. “Subdued” growth estimated at 3% this year will not alter the budget path, and inflation could also increase over the medium term from current under-target lows. In external accounts the agency praised near elimination of the current account hole, but warns the country has reverted to a net debtor position with private sector borrowing, with total net liabilities over 250% of receipts. Petrobras tops the list with close to $150 billion outstanding, after settling a US class action lawsuit for $2.5 billion on clear shareholder candidate victory.

 

 

 

Central American Remittances’ Premium Protection Stakes

2018 February 24 by

With the US planning to lift “temporary protection status” for Northern Triangle El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua and Haiti migrants, remittances jumped 8% to $75 billion for the seventeen countries in the Inter-American Dialogue database last year. The pace was a multiple of 1% regional GDP growth and mirrored export increase. For Central America and the Caribbean 3.5% growth was due to a 15% remittance uptick, and the numbers reflected continued North American labor demand as well as dollar depreciation in Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica. The violence-prone Triangle area has been in recession for a decade and families continue to head to the US border with apprehensions also declining. In Guatemala as an example 15% of the Western Highlands population left and transfers were up 17% according to the central bank. One-quarter of El Salvador’s citizens want to leave, surveys show, and in the Dominican Republic despite greater stability the number of transactions has jumped. Haitian emigration on the eighth anniversary of the record earthquake is toward Canada and South America as well, particularly to Brazil and Chile, which now hosts 100,000 in contrast with 5000 before the event. Mexican remittance growth was steady at 6%, but the weaker dollar may have prompted slightly lower volume. The individual principal amounts sent  roughly reflect the 2016-17 aggregate changes, but deportation fears may be forcing more savings on hand in case of such action. The flows contribute in the range of 5-35% of GDP, and work abroad is often the main alternative to informal employment at home, with substandard pay and labor protection. In El Salvador and Haiti immediately targeted for status termination, they account for one-third of national income, and Haitian migrants with the TPS designation are 6% of the total, the Dialogue report notes. President Trump allegedly used an epithet to describe the poorest hemisphere country, as a 2017 survey of five US cities revealed mounting Latino anxiety over potential law enforcement crackdown or new taxation.

 

On average a dozen payments are transmitted annually and only one-tenth are through the internet. With a tax 40% polled would resort to informal services, and one-quarter plan to cut amounts. One-third of immigrants think they will be deported, and 60% do not expect home government support. Over half would be open to a fine to normalize status, and the same portion claimed jobs were harder to get with the Administration’s tougher despite the healthy US economy. 70% of respondents believe that the door will be shut altogether to legitimate refugees as the provisional shelter program also lapses. Honduras’ external bond was shaky as President Hernandez was inaugurated for a second term after a disputed election fostering street protests and a security force response with live ammunition. The opposition candidate, a sports broadcaster, cited computer manipulation of his apparent victory and national strikes were organized against “dictatorship” as the Organization for American States urged a rerun. Chile may harden its line against Haitians after President Pinera’s second term win, which upgraded the growth forecast to 3.5% on boosted private sector confidence and modest rate cuts alongside but he may turn previous social spending promises to rubble.

Chile’s Elevated Election Rerun Fatigue

2017 December 11 by

Chilean stocks on a 35 percent run on the MSCI Index through October were humbled as repeated rightist presidential election favorite Pinera did not won on the first round as expected, with respective  center and far left contenders Guillier and Diaz finishing close behind. He would succeed outgoing President Bachelet for a second time, after her term was marred by meager growth at 1.5% this year and stagnant fixed investment from tax, labor union and private pension changes. She angered the mining community by refusing projects on environmental grounds, while expanding university access to low-income students. With family members caught in scandal, her popularity rating dipped below 25%, and the ruling coalition could not unite around a candidate leaving the field seemingly set for a Pinera romp although his abrasive character and past allegations of illegal campaign funding continued to alienate voters. In contrast with his initial sweeping free-market platform, the latest version has been cautious to court moderate support but includes easier copper industry permitting and labor rules after export rebound on Chinese demand. As the contest plays out inflation is subdued at under 2 percent aided by a firmer currency, and the central bank after an extended hold may cut rates into 2018 should food prices be unaffected by weather conditions. The business-friendly contender’s lackluster result may be an ominous signal for upcoming polls in Colombia as President Santos, another unpopular incumbent, exits on equally meager growth and a controversial peace deal with the guerilla FARC, which has registered as a political party to offer its own standard-bearer for “economic justice.” Oil export earnings are up, but the current account deficit will still come in around 4% of GDP, and the fate of fiscal reforms to curb that gap is uncertain under the next administration, which may be under public spending pressure to meet infrastructure and social commitments.

Mexico’s mid-year equity rally has petered out as the election cycle there looms alongside NAFTA renegotiation impasse after several rounds. Ratings agencies began to present worst-case scenarios under pact dissolution which would trigger the worst recession in a decade, as officials reject devastating outcomes with the remaining global network of trade relationships. Presidential early poll leader Lopez Obrador has toned down his trademark populism but promises to spurn a bad North America deal and revisit private opening of the state petroleum sector. He directs venom toward President Trump as an “irresponsible neo-fascist” while promising to uproot corruption and drug trafficking at home through new approaches. An independent opponent, the spouse of ex-President Calderon, has emerged with 10 percent backing under a “conciliator” vision appealing to centrist voters after she spurned the conservative National Action Party. The ruling PRI has not yet designated a successor to President Pena Nieto, whose reputation suffered from consecutive insider scandals and economic and law enforcement missteps. Central bank head Carstens steps down in November with annual inflation at 6 percent, triple the growth rate, and rate rises on the horizon to match the US Federal Reserve’s likely trajectory. The peso again dipped toward 20/dollar as sunset clauses and other negative constructs gripped upcoming tripartite talks and runoffs.

Jamaica’s Weather Beaten Backstop Boomerang

2017 November 29 by

Jamaican stocks were up almost 75 percent on the MSCI Frontier index and external bonds were reopened at record low 5-6 percent yields, as the IMF praised strong compliance under the second review of the 3-year $1.7 billion program. Fiscal year 2016-17 growth was 1.5 percent on second half mining, weather, and agricultural lag offset by “buoyant” construction and business outsourcing which reduced unemployment to 12 percent. Headline inflation was 4.5% in August, within the target zone, and the central bank dropped the benchmark rate 25 basis points to sustain double-digit credit expansion with bad loans now under 5 percent of the total. The current account gap rose to 2.5% of GDP with car and machinery imports on $2 billion in net international reserves and slight local dollar depreciation in the last quarter. In the financial sector securities dealer oversight tightened and competitive foreign exchange auctions were launched. The budget was roughly in balance with a 7 percent primary surplus amid slow progress on reducing public sector wages and “reshaping” government, according to the Fund’s October report. Pension reform is under preparation with Inter-American Development Bank help, and one-fifth of assets in two big state bodies, the Urban Development and Factories Corporations, could be divested though the stock exchange and direct tenders, with the plan a key trigger for the market rally. While all securities brokers observe a master retail agreement, legislation has not been finalized for a new bank resolution regime and pension fund portfolio guidelines for more domestic and international diversification. The central bank may need recapitalization, and foreign exchange exposure is a “sizable share” of financial institution balance sheets, equal to 10 percent of GDP for non-loan investment. Intermediaries often finance themselves through subsidiaries and are in turn tied to corporate conglomerates threatening wider spillover risks, the analysis cautioned.

A separate IMF piece of work soon to come out as a book examines the broader Caribbean distressed debt legacy over the past decade which peaked at 15-20 percent levels and have only marginally improved with lingering restructuring, sale and write-off obstacles. The highest loads are in the Eastern Caribbean in St. Kitts and Nevis and Dominica, while at the opposite end Trinidad and Tobago, with stocks ahead 7 percent, has less than a 5 percent burden. They contribute to economic drag, and courts take on average three years for insolvency cases. Valuation and registration are inadequate and social customs also weigh against disposal as property foreclosure is shunned. The research asked bank executives and government officials to rank the chief resolution impediments, and the former stressed economic, legal, collateral, and real estate conditions, while the latter cited poor creditor information and underwriting and the absence of formal impaired asset markets. The authors split the difference by urging clearer loss recognition rules and greater credit bureau use as in Jamaica in recent years. Judicial and bankruptcy frameworks should be revamped and beyond the Bahamas a pan-regional NPL market could be set up, building on OECS harmonization efforts in asset management and credit reporting to create “momentum” rather than creative accounting, they suggest.

Argentina’s Churlish Change Election

2017 November 3 by

Argentina financial assets shook off a brief scare about a parliamentary election opposition and Peronist party comeback against President Macri’s new Change movement with a rally after it won 40 percent of the vote and gained seats in both houses although still in minority position. The victory reflected popular acceptance of the government’s “gradualist” reform agenda despite opinion survey dips as well as rivals’ weakness, with no clear candidates emerging to claim the mantle of ex-President Christina Fernandez, who was narrowly defeated in a Buenos Aires Senate race as the target of corruption and abuse investigations during her time in office. Ruling party momentum should translate into promised labor, tax and capital market overhauls as details are proposed. Corporate income rates could come down 10 percent, and worker formalization could include amnesty while the social security system stays intact. Local institutional investor development, particularly mutual funds, is a priority with near-term elevation to core MSCI stock market status in mind. An infrastructure public-private partnership framework is also set to roll out an estimated $10 billion in annual projects through end-decade. The economy is out of recession and the fiscal deficit will improve this year, while inflation is stuck at 20 percent forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high as credit, especially mortgages begin to pick up after a prolonged freeze. The budget gap relies on external financing with another $2.5 billion sought before year-end, and exchange rate adjustment has lured investors after the decade-long capital controls regime while widening the current account deficit. The administration has pushed to realize potential from non-agriculture exports with currency competitiveness, but the scope is limited pending productivity and technological changes for small-scale manufacturing.

Elections are in the spotlight throughout Latin America as a main risk amid commodity recovery and sovereign ratings stabilization. Brazil’s Finance Minister Mereilles is rumored as a presidential candidate in 2018, as opinion polls show former convicted President Lula in the lead amid a pack of ideological entrants who may be too extreme for average voter appeal. Social security overhaul could be enacted before the thick of the political cycle, with modest trims the most likely scenario. Interest rate cuts may have run their course with inflation at the bottom of the target band, despite output slack, as development bank subsidies are also pared with a market-based benchmark. President Temer’s approval number is only single digits and he barely escaped the impeachment track, but is still in prosecutor sights for allegedly pocketing bribes from disgraced meat purveyor JBS, which faced securities holder lawsuits in the US and other jurisdictions.

Mexico’s peso has again flagged under US threats to dissolve NAFTA, after several negotiating rounds ended in acrimony. Trade Representative Lightizer insisted on strict local content revisions and a periodic sunset clause under which the agreement would automatically expire every five years without explicit renewal. Mexican officials tried to portray the talks as normal posturing while pointing out that half of cross-border commerce would survive pact abolition. The economists presenting the Mexican side have tried to make the case that the bilateral trade deficit is due to multiple factors, and pointed to recent breakthroughs in state oil company Pemex’s private auctions as removing barriers, but Trump tweets call for more dramatic change.

Central America’s Clinging Clown Acts

2017 September 18 by

Central  American bonds sold off as Guatemala’s president Morales, formerly a well-known comedian, ousted the UN’s anti-corruption monitor as it investigated his family and political party, and El Salvador grappled with a pension reform standoff accumulated over two decades with total liabilities now at $25 billion or 90 percent of GDP. Costa Rica also tripped up on new external debt authorization and fiscal outlays for court spending which may not get parliamentary backing ahead of February 2018 elections, as Panama’s President Varela, with record low 35 percent approval ratings, was embroiled  in the Brazil construction company Odebrecht bribery scandal, with alleged payments to his campaign and for a metro project bid. Guatemala’s business community is at odds with popular support of the UN integrity body, which dates back decades to the “dirty war” period of army control, and street rallies have condemned the President’s “clown circus” in expelling the mission to possibly salvage his own immunity. Economic growth is around 3 percent, as criminal gangs and violence have spurred emigration once targeting the US, but with increased border enforcement often staying instead in Mexico. El Salvador’s government, with both the FMLN and ARENA parties holding a similar number of assembly seats, initially missed obligations in the mixed public-private system in April, as they argued about overdue contribution charge and retirement age changes. Ratings agency downgrades of at least one notch followed, with S&P assigning “selective default” until the amount was cleared in July on budget appropriation. The next big chunk due is in October and in the wake of court rulings urging compromise the ruling FMLN declared it would consider opposition proposals, which could include caps on monthly draws and private manager fees alongside higher taxes. Performance has lagged the EMBI sub-index as spreads jumped 50 basis points in recent months, with the pension clash and IMF program likelihood scuttled indefinitely especially in light of previous results.

Private pension pioneer Chile has also been debating overhaul to ensure basic floors but debate remains stuck with President Bachelet’s unpopularity and the race on to succeed her in early 2018, with previous incumbent and conservative party stalwart Pinera in the lead. Shares are ahead at roughly the MSCI index 25 percent average on copper price recovery, although this year’s growth is forecast at 1-1.5 percent on 2 percent inflation, which may allow a 25 basis point rate reduction at the next central bank meeting. However Finance Minister Valdes and other officials resigned with confidence ebbing toward the end of Bachelet’s second term amid a cabinet fight over a mining venture’s environmental fallout. Colombia in contrast has share gains only half that range, with growth around the same level and an interest rate cut already on higher than target 4.5 percent inflation. The gross debt burden is near 50 percent of GDP, 10 percent above the “BBB” median,  and the latest fiscal package with a 3 percent deficit may not stave off a downgrade in advance of next March polls. The outlook is negative and the current account hole remains structural with oil exports off a bottom but still lackluster. Ex-guerilla FARC members entered congress after signing a peace pact and receiving demobilization funds, and the ELN may follow suit as lengthy civil war costs shift to their aftermath.

Argentina’s Convoluted Christening Ceremony

2017 September 11 by

Argentine stocks, after sloughing off disappointment at MSCI’s unmentioned first-tier return with the frontier index up 35% through July, was again on edge into mid-August primary elections, with former President Christina Fernandez charting a Senate comeback to rally the opposition Peronist party. She retains popularity especially among working class pockets in the capital as the current political base, given the large social spending during her tenure subsequently slowed under the Macri government’s austerity policies. However corruption and money laundering investigations have put her on the defensive, and she roughly tied with the ruling Change coalition candidate in the preliminary race ahead of the October mid-term polls. Foreign investors took her revived visibility in stride as the central bank intervened to support the peso after relative stability following its free float. Recent inflation figures still at 1.5 percent monthly and delays in agricultural export proceeds have pressured the currency, but the monetary authority has tried to maintain high real interest rates through a 25 percent benchmark and Lebac secondary market transactions. The exchange rate has slipped over 10 percent in nominal terms the past few months to 17/dollar with the current account deficit wider at 3 percent of GDP on goods and services imbalances, the latter from increased tourism abroad. Fiscal policy is mostly on target with the primary gap around 4.5 percent of GDP despite election-related outlays and consolidation backlash as unions organize against consumer subsidy and provincial transfer cuts. Should President Macri’s grouping hold its own in the October contest the process will accelerate as sovereign bond holders have begun to insist on further discipline with growth pickup to sustain high-yield participation.

Brazil is also grappling with overdue reforms as President Temer survived an initial impeachment attempt and his cabinet vowed to press on with labor and social security changes. The employment code overhaul will update World War II era practices and ease administrative burdens for small business in particular, while pension adjustment remains uncertain with plans to extend retirement age and conceivably shift to private fund reliance as the current generous scheme is an outsize budget drag. The pro-business PSDB, which backed Temer’s ouster, is a proponent while his PMDB, the largest party in Congress is divided a year from the next scheduled national elections. The government must tread carefully after bad publicity over price and service switches at passport offices and other essential arms to save money. The overall deficit is stuck at 10 percent of GDP and the once sacrosanct primary surplus will not reappear over the near-term. Loosening has moved to the monetary side as the central bank continues to reduce the benchmark Selic, with inflation at a 20-year low of 3 percent on incipient economic recovery. However recession is still deep in Rio de Janeiro state a year after the Summer Olympics there prompting a media blitz of critical retrospectives. A former governor is in jail and major politicians in charge of the event contacts face criminal prosecution, as law and order has worsened since the closing ceremonies. Federal authorities have dispatched 10000 troops to patrol the streets and beaches as the sporting facilities originally designed for productive municipal use lay idle in another form of retirement abuse.

Cuba’s Thwarted Thaw Thickening

2017 June 24 by

Cuban asset prices sank as the Trump administration announced partial reversal of bilateral travel and commercial openings and harshly criticized authoritarian human rights practices overlooked in other regions. The tougher line fulfills a presidential campaign pledge to Miami’s exile community cheering the changes, while business lobbies like the US Chamber of Commerce were upset that global competitors would have easier access, as their countries long ago approved individual tourism and joint ventures under military control that will now be banned after the Treasury Department issues guidelines. Airlines had reduced or severed routes before the decision, as visitor infrastructure from internet availability to hotel occupancy frustrated demand with renewed diplomatic relations two years ago. However big cruise lines with expansion plans through end-decade may preserve their strategy as they cater to groups with accommodations in place, but disappointments also mounted with the lack of credit card acceptance, dual exchange rate, and poor organized visit experience for foreigners. Starwood was the only US operator to offer a resort as an alternative to state-run hotels, as the Brookings Institute projection of $10 billion in hospitality earnings by 2030, twice current imports, appeared remote without underlying tax and administrative shifts as well promoting more private sector investment. Nearby Haiti, with the hemisphere’s lowest per capita income, has been considered a more promising destination, and new President Moise will encourage agricultural and industry hubs with reliable electricity supply around northern beach locations in his economic strategy under an IMF staff-monitored program.

In the Dominican Republic in contrast tourism revenue was up 10 percent last year to over $6.5 billion, almost one-tenth of output, with 2017 set to deliver another record. European visitors now account for one-quarter of the total, with North Americans still dominant at two-thirds. Remittances in turn, mainly from the US, swelled near 15 percent as Q1 economic growth continued at a 5 percent clip as the regional leader. A primary budget surplus has helped halve the deficit to 2 percent of GDP, and the current account gap is the same with higher gold exports and slashed oil imports, with the difference covered by mining and hotel FDI. Costa Rica is close with 4 percent growth heading into the 2018 election season, with inflation within the 3 percent target range. Fiscal reform has stumbled on political opposition with public debt hitting 60 percent of GDP, with the external portion rising faster on international bond issuance. The 10 percent trade deficit likewise persists, and the central bank has warned capital goods demand may not translate quickly into productive capacity. El Salvador is caught in a low growth twin deficit trap with a $600 million global bond in February used to repay local Treasury bills, as pension fund obligations have not been met amid government infighting. Panama alone has maintained its investment grade as Chinese diplomatic recognition was shifted from Taiwan to Beijing in advance of its president’s White House trip. With expansion Canal toll earnings jumped 20 percent in the first quarter, and re-exports through the Colon Free zone have also picked up to support 5 percent growth. A fiscal responsibility law has enabled sovereign wealth fund transfer, and the Panama papers tax evasion saga has faded although reputation isolation lingers.