The Americas’ Migration Caravan Careening
With the recent US and Brazil elections in part fought on immigration policy the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue and partners issued separate reports on Venezuela and Central America flight with original economic and financial recommendations alongside traditional diplomatic and humanitarian ones. Caracas’ rarely updated official statistics acknowledge inflation will exceed the IMF’s 1,000,000% prediction, as 2.5 million or more than 5% of the population have already left for neighboring or overseas destinations, especially Colombia and Peru. Decades ago the roles were reversed when more democratic and wealthy Venezuela was host to refugees from armed conflict and human rights abuses. The Colombian influx along the border is now 5000/day and they have been granted temporary protection and education and work access. An earlier wave was mainly trained professional, but the latest are poor and middle class citizens escaping widespread hunger, violence and economic collapse. With these conditions, an estimated $1 billion in remittances is literally a lifeline, an amount just above the $900 million bond repayment from the state oil company in October to avoid formal default and Citgo operations seizure following creditor US court judgments. Around 350,000 Venezuelans have sought asylum worldwide as persecution victims but the rest should not be deported under the Cartagena Declaration which allows broader circumstances, according to the analysis. Brazil Chile, Ecuador and Peru also authorize temporary visas and public services use, but asylum claims are badly backlogged and another system has yet to emerge to “regularize” status.
Arrivals often have urgent food and medical needs which the UN and other donors are unable to fund, and sleeping on the streets without shelter aggravates their plight. Columbia has started to implement infrastructure and social support for its own internally displaced under the rebel peace accord, but cost and political resistance currently prevent extension to refugees. Caribbean islands in contrast never signed treaties or operate under foreign law, so Trinidad and Tobago and Curacao do not offer safe haven. The paper urges common processing standards and burden-sharing, and an immediate aid conference led by the Inter-American Development Bank which can mobilize novel private sector funding. It foresees pilot bonds in these host established emerging markets where local and foreign investors could receive refugee community utility income streams and tax incentives in possible structures. Venezuela regime asset seizure for corruption and mistreatment could also feature in the mix, and tap expertise from a dedicated World Bank program for targeting proceeds.
In Central America, and the Northern Triangle El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras in particular migration overwhelmingly to the US has doubled to 4.5 million the past two decades. Insecurity due to crime and extortion is a chief driver as well as lack of formal private sector work given the commodity and unskilled labor-based economic model, a separate document argues. Nicaragua is again a source with battles between the Ortega government and protesters, but the regional flow may be in secular decline as increased deportations under stricter Trump Administration policy join with improved domestic business outlooks in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Panama and elsewhere. The research advocates increased financial sector focus on this population from conventional banks to specialized credit providers and investment funds, so that an intermediary and product caravan matches the human one.