Asia’s Stray Economic Strategy Strictures
A fifteen member Center for Strategic and International Studies panel headed by a former US Trade Representative issued a report to guide Asia-Pacific economic policy in the new administration after a year and a half of preparation and heavy emphasis on TPP ratification if the pact is redrawn. Infrastructure and technology are major pushes and it stresses China reciprocity and an updated architecture through the Asian Development Bank and APEC forum and dedicated staff at the White House National Security Council. The geography will account for 40 percent of global GDP by 2030, and already takes almost 30 percent of US exports for 3.5 million. Asia’s direct investment total here is over $550 billion, with the Chinese deal pace tripling in 2016 from the previous year. The ASEAN bloc alone has 600 million customers and $2.5 trillion in output as an unrealized prospect, despite “governance challenges,” the review stipulates. It laments Washington’s “distracted and inconsistent” approach the past 15 years resulting in botched diplomacy toward the Asian Infrastructure Bank’s launch as a recent example, which should have been embraced for its organizational and ownership contributions. TPP withdrawal may be “politically expedient” after the election result but rule-based order should be a linchpin of future agreement to be preserved as a goal. Services and energy are two sectors that could form specialized pacts. The former include health care, transport, information processing and finance. China and India will drive alternative fuel expansion and technology like wind and solar for decades, but the analysis points out that the era of double-digit growth is likely over across the region amid mounting debt and continued protectionism. Japan and South Korea have aging demographics, while low-income countries grapple with lagging corruption rule of law, and environment-natural resource indicators.
APEC, with Latin American participation, was founded almost 30 years ago and managed an information technology accord in 2015 but was largely overshadowed by TPP negotiations the past decade and is “amorphous” in the report’s view. The Trump team should stay engaged with the diversity of competing arrangements like the proposed ASEAN+6 free trade zone, as no single framework is likely to prevail. It should promote balanced and sustainable growth as recognized at the post-2008 crisis G-20 summit, greater American company access and entry, and trans-pacific commercial integration. Health pandemics and natural disasters can be tackled jointly by public and private sector representatives. The paper advises President Trump to articulate a vision in an early dedicated speech which can remedy TPP’s structural and political drawbacks with another market-opening campaign. Chinese intellectual property and cyber theft issues should be emphasized bilaterally in the Strategic and Economic Dialogue and informal channels at the top of White House coordination responsibility. Connectivity should be the main infrastructure thrust with US firm superiority, and private capital should be enlisted alongside official lending programs including Beijing’s One Belt-One Road. Congress and the Executive Branch should hire and train more Asia-focused staff and economists should be placed at the highest foreign policy making level, in contrast with the initial Administration preference for defense and public relations heavyweights potentially obscuring this background.
